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【TOP 50】Paul Kasriel Quotes - WhatsApp Status | Page-1

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Exports are rising, and exports are likely to continue to do better as we move through the second half because of recovering economies abroad, ... So I think this really, especially with the inventories, sets up for a strong rebound in third quarter GDP, conservatively something along the lines of 3.75 percent. - Paul Kasriel Quotes

Exports are rising, and exports are likely to continue to do better as we move through the second half because of recovering economies abroad, ... So I think this really, especially with the inventories, sets up for a strong rebound in third quarter GDP, conservatively something along the lines of 3.75 percent.

We're a what's-my-monthly-payment nation. The idea is to have my monthly payments as high as I can take. If you cut interest rates, I'll get a bigger car. - Paul Kasriel Quotes

We're a what's-my-monthly-payment nation. The idea is to have my monthly payments as high as I can take. If you cut interest rates, I'll get a bigger car.

You can see a margin squeeze there. Higher prices are making it into the pipeline, but they're not making it to the faucet. - Paul Kasriel Quotes

You can see a margin squeeze there. Higher prices are making it into the pipeline, but they're not making it to the faucet.

There may be somebody else taking the baton now, which is not unusual in a recovery. Housing is typically the leader out of the desert to the promised land; but, just like Moses didn't make it to the promised land, as rates rise, housing doesn't quite make it, either. Other sectors do. - Paul Kasriel Quotes

There may be somebody else taking the baton now, which is not unusual in a recovery. Housing is typically the leader out of the desert to the promised land; but, just like Moses didn't make it to the promised land, as rates rise, housing doesn't quite make it, either. Other sectors do.

If he starts to see softness in the economy, and if in fact inflation is moderating, he will want to cut rates a little bit in order to have a soft landing. - Paul Kasriel Quotes

If he starts to see softness in the economy, and if in fact inflation is moderating, he will want to cut rates a little bit in order to have a soft landing.

Sustained economic growth is dependent on profit growth. Without profits, there will be no new hiring of workers and no new capital spending. - Paul Kasriel Quotes

Sustained economic growth is dependent on profit growth. Without profits, there will be no new hiring of workers and no new capital spending.

It's growing rapidly, and it does suggest that we're going to see at least a temporary pickup in economic activity. - Paul Kasriel Quotes

It's growing rapidly, and it does suggest that we're going to see at least a temporary pickup in economic activity.

And rates are not likely to be adjusting downward. Households are paying about 13.75 percent of their aggregate tax income to service debt -- and it is going to go higher. - Paul Kasriel Quotes

And rates are not likely to be adjusting downward. Households are paying about 13.75 percent of their aggregate tax income to service debt -- and it is going to go higher.

O'Neill was like the offensive line of the Green Bay Packers playing in a dome -- they can't hear signals. O'Neill couldn't hear the signals the White House was sending, and they got rid of him. Presumably, Snow has better hearing. - Paul Kasriel Quotes

O'Neill was like the offensive line of the Green Bay Packers playing in a dome -- they can't hear signals. O'Neill couldn't hear the signals the White House was sending, and they got rid of him. Presumably, Snow has better hearing.

Those who have lived through the 1970s remember the tremendous toll that accelerating inflation took on the economy and vowed to never make that mistake again, - Paul Kasriel Quotes

Those who have lived through the 1970s remember the tremendous toll that accelerating inflation took on the economy and vowed to never make that mistake again,

The yield curve has been one of the more reliable indicators of turning points, not necessarily recessions, but slowdowns in the economy. - Paul Kasriel Quotes

The yield curve has been one of the more reliable indicators of turning points, not necessarily recessions, but slowdowns in the economy.

If Republicans were to regain control of the Senate, the probabilities of some major tax cuts would go up quite dramatically. If those tax cuts were implemented, this would have a positive impact on both the economy and the stock market. - Paul Kasriel Quotes

If Republicans were to regain control of the Senate, the probabilities of some major tax cuts would go up quite dramatically. If those tax cuts were implemented, this would have a positive impact on both the economy and the stock market.

I've thought there would be some moderation in consumer spending this year, but I also thought that job growth would be better at this point than it has been. It may be that consumer spending will moderate even more than what I'm forecasting. - Paul Kasriel Quotes

I've thought there would be some moderation in consumer spending this year, but I also thought that job growth would be better at this point than it has been. It may be that consumer spending will moderate even more than what I'm forecasting.

A recession is in the eye of the beholder, and the eye of the NBER, but clearly we're struggling here. We're at stall speed and it's not clear what, in the short term, is going to get the economy's nose up. - Paul Kasriel Quotes

A recession is in the eye of the beholder, and the eye of the NBER, but clearly we're struggling here. We're at stall speed and it's not clear what, in the short term, is going to get the economy's nose up.

I think there are some members who would prefer that the funds rate be at 3 percent, but I suspect there is a little concern about moving too fast and upsetting the household sector. - Paul Kasriel Quotes

I think there are some members who would prefer that the funds rate be at 3 percent, but I suspect there is a little concern about moving too fast and upsetting the household sector.

The Fed is a price fixer; it fixes the price of short-term credit. If there's an increase in demand for credit, interest rates want to rise. But because the Fed is fixing the price of credit to keep rates from rising, it has to create more reserves or allow banks to create more money, and that's what leads to bubbles. - Paul Kasriel Quotes

The Fed is a price fixer; it fixes the price of short-term credit. If there's an increase in demand for credit, interest rates want to rise. But because the Fed is fixing the price of credit to keep rates from rising, it has to create more reserves or allow banks to create more money, and that's what leads to bubbles.

This is different than the 1973 gasoline spike, - Paul Kasriel Quotes

This is different than the 1973 gasoline spike,

I agree with Gross. It's been refinancing of mortgages -- basically eating into one's seed corn -- that has been sustaining consumer spending. When that peters out, it's not clear what's going to kick in. - Paul Kasriel Quotes

I agree with Gross. It's been refinancing of mortgages -- basically eating into one's seed corn -- that has been sustaining consumer spending. When that peters out, it's not clear what's going to kick in.

Nobody wants a strong currency, and since the U.S. currency is fundamentally weak, foreign central banks need to buy up dollars to keep their currency from appreciating. - Paul Kasriel Quotes

Nobody wants a strong currency, and since the U.S. currency is fundamentally weak, foreign central banks need to buy up dollars to keep their currency from appreciating.

Banks

The dollar would have fallen faster or further had there not been this massive central bank intervention. If in fact they are going to cut back on their dollar-support activities, then the dollar is going to resume its decline, and that's going to have some inflationary implications. - Paul Kasriel Quotes

The dollar would have fallen faster or further had there not been this massive central bank intervention. If in fact they are going to cut back on their dollar-support activities, then the dollar is going to resume its decline, and that's going to have some inflationary implications.

Given all the other spending we're having to do for homeland defense and the military, my suspicion is that inflation is going to be higher than what the White House thinks and probably what [economists in the] Blue Chip [survey] and Congress think as well. Historically, when we've seen a pickup in government spending concentrated in military spending, you tend to get somewhat higher inflation. - Paul Kasriel Quotes

Given all the other spending we're having to do for homeland defense and the military, my suspicion is that inflation is going to be higher than what the White House thinks and probably what [economists in the] Blue Chip [survey] and Congress think as well. Historically, when we've seen a pickup in government spending concentrated in military spending, you tend to get somewhat higher inflation.

A bursting of the housing bubble could result in a severe recession. - Paul Kasriel Quotes

A bursting of the housing bubble could result in a severe recession.

There are a lot of crosscurrents now, but falling yields might indicate that demand for credit is slowing down and that the Fed, by holding the fed funds rate where it is, is actually keeping rates all along the curve from falling to their equilibrium level, or to the level where would they would more naturally go, - Paul Kasriel Quotes

There are a lot of crosscurrents now, but falling yields might indicate that demand for credit is slowing down and that the Fed, by holding the fed funds rate where it is, is actually keeping rates all along the curve from falling to their equilibrium level, or to the level where would they would more naturally go,

This is a warning signal ... that we are on recession watch now. - Paul Kasriel Quotes

This is a warning signal ... that we are on recession watch now.

OPEC doesn't suffer from money illusion. It decided they want an honest dollar for an honest barrel of oil. - Paul Kasriel Quotes

OPEC doesn't suffer from money illusion. It decided they want an honest dollar for an honest barrel of oil.

The labor market is improving, optimism is improving and spirits will be higher this holiday season. Sales are going to better than OK, they're going to be good. - Paul Kasriel Quotes

The labor market is improving, optimism is improving and spirits will be higher this holiday season. Sales are going to better than OK, they're going to be good.

I guess you could (say) that the Fed sees the light at the end of the tunnel. They believe that they have taken a lot of accommodation out of policy now. - Paul Kasriel Quotes

I guess you could (say) that the Fed sees the light at the end of the tunnel. They believe that they have taken a lot of accommodation out of policy now.

In most periods throughout history, households were net suppliers of money to the economy, ... Today, by a record amount, they are net borrowers from the rest of the economy. - Paul Kasriel Quotes

In most periods throughout history, households were net suppliers of money to the economy, ... Today, by a record amount, they are net borrowers from the rest of the economy.

You're effectively lowering the cost of capital for corporations, and anything to lower that cost will help in inducing more plant and equipment spending. - Paul Kasriel Quotes

You're effectively lowering the cost of capital for corporations, and anything to lower that cost will help in inducing more plant and equipment spending.

Economists are notoriously bad at predicting turning points. They're like credit ratings agencies, they don't anticipate things very well. - Paul Kasriel Quotes

Economists are notoriously bad at predicting turning points. They're like credit ratings agencies, they don't anticipate things very well.

Oddly enough, corporations are lending to the government sector and to the household sector to finance our spending. That's not really a good mix. What leads to growth for our economy is business investment. - Paul Kasriel Quotes

Oddly enough, corporations are lending to the government sector and to the household sector to finance our spending. That's not really a good mix. What leads to growth for our economy is business investment.

Unfortunately, we no longer have the funds that could have been used to provide the seed money for Social Security privatization. It seems to me that he dropped the ball. - Paul Kasriel Quotes

Unfortunately, we no longer have the funds that could have been used to provide the seed money for Social Security privatization. It seems to me that he dropped the ball.

Money

Nothing seems to be going quite right. We're not seeing mass defections. The weather has been bad. Frustrations are starting to build that this might be going into a less antiseptic phase. - Paul Kasriel Quotes

Nothing seems to be going quite right. We're not seeing mass defections. The weather has been bad. Frustrations are starting to build that this might be going into a less antiseptic phase.

I think it's still too soon to say this is a sign that fundamental inflationary pressures are cooling off just yet. And I think commodities are due for another leg up -- this has been a correction in a still more fundamental longer-term trend up. - Paul Kasriel Quotes

I think it's still too soon to say this is a sign that fundamental inflationary pressures are cooling off just yet. And I think commodities are due for another leg up -- this has been a correction in a still more fundamental longer-term trend up.

At some point we will have equalization, where an employer will be indifferent between hiring someone in Bangalore or Chicago, - Paul Kasriel Quotes

At some point we will have equalization, where an employer will be indifferent between hiring someone in Bangalore or Chicago,

There's nothing to suggest that payrolls are going to be particularly weak or strong. That's why the consensus estimate is so close to the average of the past six months. - Paul Kasriel Quotes

There's nothing to suggest that payrolls are going to be particularly weak or strong. That's why the consensus estimate is so close to the average of the past six months.

Even without the fraud, ... return on capital has been plumbing the depths, the United States is at war, government spending exploding to the upside and we're imposing tariffs on steel and lumber. What's to like? - Paul Kasriel Quotes

Even without the fraud, ... return on capital has been plumbing the depths, the United States is at war, government spending exploding to the upside and we're imposing tariffs on steel and lumber. What's to like?

The final chapter of Greenspan's legacy has not been written. - Paul Kasriel Quotes

The final chapter of Greenspan's legacy has not been written.

Consumer spending is going to slow down, but it's probably going to grow somewhere in the 2.75 to 3.5 percent range for the next several quarters. - Paul Kasriel Quotes

Consumer spending is going to slow down, but it's probably going to grow somewhere in the 2.75 to 3.5 percent range for the next several quarters.

I guess you could (say) that the Fed sees the light at the end of the tunnel, - Paul Kasriel Quotes

I guess you could (say) that the Fed sees the light at the end of the tunnel,

In a longer-run sense, I would view it as marginally unproductive, a worsening of the trade-off between growth and inflation. But will we be able to detect that? I doubt it. - Paul Kasriel Quotes

In a longer-run sense, I would view it as marginally unproductive, a worsening of the trade-off between growth and inflation. But will we be able to detect that? I doubt it.

In a longer-run sense, I would view it as marginally unproductive, a worsening of the trade-off between growth and inflation, ... But will we be able to detect that? I doubt it. - Paul Kasriel Quotes

In a longer-run sense, I would view it as marginally unproductive, a worsening of the trade-off between growth and inflation, ... But will we be able to detect that? I doubt it.

Exports are rising, and exports are likely to continue to do better as we move through the second half because of recovering economies abroad. So I think this really, especially with the inventories, sets up for a strong rebound in third quarter GDP, conservatively something along the lines of 3.75 percent. - Paul Kasriel Quotes

Exports are rising, and exports are likely to continue to do better as we move through the second half because of recovering economies abroad. So I think this really, especially with the inventories, sets up for a strong rebound in third quarter GDP, conservatively something along the lines of 3.75 percent.

Those are all economists. They used to be employed by Wall Street, and now they're consultants. - Paul Kasriel Quotes

Those are all economists. They used to be employed by Wall Street, and now they're consultants.

Do you have to be reeducated? Maybe not -- maybe you just need to accept a lower wage rate, - Paul Kasriel Quotes

Do you have to be reeducated? Maybe not -- maybe you just need to accept a lower wage rate,

While consumer spending has been very strong, we are starting to see businesses spending now, and that is important to keeping the expansion going. Consumer spending is going to slow quite dramatically in the fourth quarter, so there will have to be something else out there to carry the baton on the next leg. - Paul Kasriel Quotes

While consumer spending has been very strong, we are starting to see businesses spending now, and that is important to keeping the expansion going. Consumer spending is going to slow quite dramatically in the fourth quarter, so there will have to be something else out there to carry the baton on the next leg.

All the data suggest the labor market is improving -- perhaps not as fast everyone would hope and want, but it's better than deteriorating. - Paul Kasriel Quotes

All the data suggest the labor market is improving -- perhaps not as fast everyone would hope and want, but it's better than deteriorating.

That, plus the fact that the Bank of Japan won't be buying as many Treasury and agency securities, will put upward pressure on rates. - Paul Kasriel Quotes

That, plus the fact that the Bank of Japan won't be buying as many Treasury and agency securities, will put upward pressure on rates.

I think it's a big deal -- I think it'll be ultimately a deal we don't care for. - Paul Kasriel Quotes

I think it's a big deal -- I think it'll be ultimately a deal we don't care for.

What the Fed is trying to say is, 'We're getting ready to tighten, but it won't be a rerun of 1994,' ... Of course, they don't know that -- they didn't think 1994 was going to be the way it was. - Paul Kasriel Quotes

What the Fed is trying to say is, 'We're getting ready to tighten, but it won't be a rerun of 1994,' ... Of course, they don't know that -- they didn't think 1994 was going to be the way it was.

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